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  • EUR/USD, Forecast and Analysis

    February 20. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GOLD, US OIL

    FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK:

    This week dollar will be trading sideways between 1.0520 – 1.0780, because of a lack of important news. Now market is waiting for Trump speech about future of new tax rates for business, that he will have on 28 february.

    On Wednesday we have “FOMC Meeting Minutes”, that will predict future of Fed % rate, but as Yellen told at previous week a twice in congress that: “Futures of new business tax rates is now most important for Fed and we need to include them in our future policy”.

    Also at previous week we had very positive news for % rates increasing as “US CPI”, that, as result, increasing more faster, then expected. But the same time dollar started to fall, because EUR/USD was trading on main support level 1.0520 (as I pointed in previous forecast) and market had strong technical rebound up to main resistance 1.0780 – 1.0830.

    Any news before Trump tax new policy market is ignoring and will continue to be trading sideways in range 1.0520 – 1.0780. So we need waiting for Trump result and then made decision about more clear dollar future, that we will see in new forecast to the next week.

    Important news of this week:
    MONDAY
    - US holiday
    TUESDAY
    - GBP, BoE Gov Carney Speaks
    WEDNESDAY
    - GBP, GDP
    - EUR, CPI
    - US, FOMC Meeting Minutes !!!
    THURSDAY
    - OIL, Crude Oil Inventories
    FRIDAY
    -

    TECHNICAL FORECAST

    EUR/USD

    Main scenario:
    The market is trading along a huge sideways trend between support 1.0520/40 and resistance 1.0680/0700. Now we can expect continuation of correction to support level 1.0540.

    Alternative scenario:
    An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.0700, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.0750/80.

    eurusd

    previous forecast:
    eurusd

    GBP/USD

    Main scenarion:
    The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.2345/2400 and resistance 1.2550/85. Local uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.2495, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.2585

    Alternative scenario:
    An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.2345, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.2240 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the market to reach support level 1.2000.

    gbpusd

    previous forecast:
    gbpusd

    EUR/GBP

    Fundamental outlook:

    Pound will be trading sideways, because BoE can’t made any decisions about future of financial policy without clear picture in politics. And to made this transparency should start to sign new trading agreement, that will be able to do only after full finishing of Brexit, after article 50.

    Euro same time still do not have straight way in its development, because of QE continuation, so also have a negative pressure. EUR/GBP will start trend only in case of changes in above news, but fore that will be trading in range 0.8460 – 0.8640.

    Main scenario:
    The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 0.8460/80 and resistance 0.8585, 0.8625/45. We can expect start of uptrend from support 0.8460 to resistance 0.8585.

    Alternative scenario:
    An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 0.8460, which will be followed by a move down to support level 0.8380.

    eurgbp

    previous forecast:
    eurgbp

    GOLD

    Fundamental outlook:
    Before Trump tax news at february 28 market will continue to be trading sideways in current range.

    Main scenario:
    The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1225/30 and resistance 1239/41. Start of local downtrend we can expect from resistance 1241, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1225.

    Alternative scenario:
    The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1241, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1251.

    gold

    previous forecast:
    gold

    US OIL

    Fundamental outlook:
    OPEC fulfill its agreement on the permanent reduction of production by 90% and while the US continues to increase the volume of oil rigs its follow market to the balance and trade is going sideways between the resistance 54.85 and support 52.50. Exit from this range is possible in the case of changeos of OPEC policy or with the arrival of spring (April), when fuel demand is increases.

    Main scenario:
    The market is trading along a sideways trend between resistance 53.85/54.30 and support 52.50, where local downtrend is trarting from resistance 53.85 with target on support 52.50.

    Alternative scenario:
    An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 54.30, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 55.20 and 56.50.

    us oil

    previous forecast:
    crude oil

    by Anton Kolhanov

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