Training with Anton Kolhanov

Start making persistent profits by sticking to my few simple trading rules and always know what you are doing with a clear plan on your hands

Subscribe & Follow me:
OK

  • EUR/USD, Forecast and Analysis

    February 28, Tuesday. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GOLD, US OIL

    MARKET OUTLOOK:

    Main driving force of market on this week will be speech of Donald Trump in parliament on February 28, on that he will say about future of his new tax policy. On the other hand, the second factor of market force is election race in France, that made pressure on euro. But Mari le Pan is staying behind two other candidates, with big gap, that create optimism for euro.

    What we can expect from Trump tax policy?
    We have 3 risks:
    1. His intentions to cut tax was just elation agitation, but with fact taxes will be reduces just symbolically;
    2. His promises on infrastructure development was less optimistic, when plans of its development were postponed on 2 years in future and term of program development will be during 10 years. So if tax decreasing will be in the same manner, market will accept it as negative for dollar;
    3. For tax decreasing should be financial compensations to the budget, otherwise will became deficit, that US will need to compensate by launching QE, that has a negative impact on the dollar. However, compensation may be only introduction of dues on import from as for non-US, as for US producers, away from US borders. In that way US producers will need to return their factories back to US. As dues, as costs with US companies moving back, will create big losses, that as result any way will made negative affect on the economy. Anyway introduction of new taxes is long process, that can take over 5-10 years, while US will find budget balance. And if to look at tax rate in Ireland, that is over 12%, not clearly, how US Google, that registered here, will made desire to pay taxes in US, because US will need to decrease its tax rate to Ireland level, from 35-38% till 12%...

    As for me, any action of Trump against new tax rate will have negative influence on the dollar and in addition market is already has laid a part of optimism in dollar price in day of Trump win. With considering of pessimism about % rate increasing by Fed in march and also with falling of Mari le Pen ratings, dollar have fewer chances for optimism.

    Now dollar is trading on the his top, where the same time gold is rebounding from the strongest resistance 1262, after that, technically, we can fall to 1193 and lower. With this, do the market suggest for us that we need to sell dollar?

    TECHNICAL FORECAST

    EUR/USD

    Main scenario:
    The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.0565 and resistance 1.0630, where uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.0630, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.0800.

    Alternative scenario:
    An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.0565, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.0500 and then possible to 1.0400.

    eurusd

    GBP/USD

    Main scenarion:
    The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.2360 and resistnace 1.2665, where uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.2665, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.3000.

    Alternative scenario:
    An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.2360, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.2060.

    gbpusd

    GOLD

    Main scenario:
    Market is trading on strong resiatance level, 1262, where in case of its further break up will be followed by reaching resistance level 1306.

    Alternative scenario:
    An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1240, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1220 and 1193.

    gold

    US CRUDE OIL

    Fundamental outlook:
    OPEC fulfill its agreement on the permanent reduction of production by 90% and while the US continues to increase the volume of oil rigs its follow market to the balance and trade is going sideways between the resistance 54.70 and support 53.70. Exit from this range is possible in the case of changeos of OPEC policy or with the arrival of spring (April), when fuel demand is increases.

    Main scenario:
    The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 53.70 and resistance 54.45/70. An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 54.70, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 55.45.

    Alternative scenario:
    An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 53.70, which will be followed by a move down to support level 52.90.

    us oil

    by Anton Kolhanov

    FREE TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS
    80% of success

    (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GOLD)

    We respect your email privacy

    What is my incentive to pass the knowledge?

    It’s simple: when you are teaching others, you are learning yourself. When I explain principles of trading to another person, I break down and systematize my own knowledge.