EUR/USD, Forecast and Analysis
Main driving force of market on this week will be speech of Donald Trump in parliament on February 28, on that he will say about future of his new tax policy. On the other hand, the second factor of market force is election race in France, that made pressure on euro. But Mari le Pan is staying behind two other candidates, with big gap, that create optimism for euro.
What we can expect from Trump tax policy?
We have 3 risks:
1. His intentions to cut tax was just elation agitation, but with fact taxes will be reduces just symbolically;
2. His promises on infrastructure development was less optimistic, when plans of its development were postponed on 2 years in future and term of program development will be during 10 years. So if tax decreasing will be in the same manner, market will accept it as negative for dollar;
3. For tax decreasing should be financial compensations to the budget, otherwise will became deficit, that US will need to compensate by launching QE, that has a negative impact on the dollar. However, compensation may be only introduction of dues on import from as for non-US, as for US producers, away from US borders. In that way US producers will need to return their factories back to US. As dues, as costs with US companies moving back, will create big losses, that as result any way will made negative affect on the economy. Anyway introduction of new taxes is long process, that can take over 5-10 years, while US will find budget balance. And if to look at tax rate in Ireland, that is over 12%, not clearly, how US Google, that registered here, will made desire to pay taxes in US, because US will need to decrease its tax rate to Ireland level, from 35-38% till 12%...
As for me, any action of Trump against new tax rate will have negative influence on the dollar and in addition market is already has laid a part of optimism in dollar price in day of Trump win. With considering of pessimism about % rate increasing by Fed in march and also with falling of Mari le Pen ratings, dollar have fewer chances for optimism.
Now dollar is trading on the his top, where the same time gold is rebounding from the strongest resistance 1262, after that, technically, we can fall to 1193 and lower. With this, do the market suggest for us that we need to sell dollar?
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.0565 and resistance 1.0630, where uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.0630, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.0800.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.0565, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.0500 and then possible to 1.0400.
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.2360 and resistnace 1.2665, where uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.2665, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.3000.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.2360, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.2060.
Market is trading on strong resiatance level, 1262, where in case of its further break up will be followed by reaching resistance level 1306.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1240, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1220 and 1193.
US CRUDE OIL
OPEC fulfill its agreement on the permanent reduction of production by 90% and while the US continues to increase the volume of oil rigs its follow market to the balance and trade is going sideways between the resistance 54.70 and support 53.70. Exit from this range is possible in the case of changeos of OPEC policy or with the arrival of spring (April), when fuel demand is increases.
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 53.70 and resistance 54.45/70. An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 54.70, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 55.45.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 53.70, which will be followed by a move down to support level 52.90.
by Anton Kolhanov
It’s simple: when you are teaching others, you are learning yourself. When I explain principles of trading to another person, I break down and systematize my own knowledge.
- My students are already making profit on their real trading accounts right now
- Profitability of trading system “Strategist” is proven with trading statements
- Forecasts based on this system are realized 80% of the time
Join us and start making profit just in 3 months
Fill in the form below, press “Send request” button and I will contact you shortly
(subscribe for a FREE newsletter)
- the quality of training course provided by me
- potential results of your trading in future
Currency pairs: EURUSD, GBPUSD, GOLD
Know where the market is going to be by the next day, next week, month and quarter
Trading reports and feedback by my students
Weekly trading reports by students who completed my training course. Report includes initial trading plan and the result of this plan being implemented.
In these articles I tell about my experience and insight on the market accumulated over years of trading since 2003.