EUR/USD, Forecast and Analysis
Current economic situation:
(-) Core CPI YoY felt to 1.9%, below FEDs target level of 2%, because of falling oil prices and this can be the reason for FED pause in % increasing;
(-) GDP and PMI strongly falling;
(-) Trump policy without changes;
(-) Risk of Trump impeachment;
(+) CPI raised above 2%, PMI of Manufacturing and Services and PPI is strongly rising.
Conclusion: all against dollar and eur/usd will continue uptrend to 1.1350
(-) if this week Wednesday’s “FOMC Meeting Minutes” will have information about negative Core CPI and possible pause in % rates rising, this will be very negative signal for dollar. In other way, if all will be the same, dollar stay more neutral;
(-/+) If oil prices after Thursday’s “OPEC meeting” will not go above $50, US CPI have risk to continue its falling or to be below 2% of target level. In other way oil now have strong uptrend and OPEC can support it, after that WTI can reach price $55, that will increase US CPI above 2%;
(+/-) this week we have a lot of FED speeches, when some of them can say about risk in % rates pause;
(-) talking about Trupm’s impeachment can to be continue and if will increase turnover, increase risk for dollar and gold uptrend;
(-) Friday’s “US GDP” have chance to continue falling, because all other economic indicators continue their falls, that will harm the dollar.
(+) CPI raised above 2% and this week on “Draghi speech” possible can say something about decreasing of QU tapering;
Conclusion: more negative scenarios for dollar, so eur/usd will continue uptrend to 1.1350
Main news of this week:
US – FED’s Harker and Kashkari speeches
US – Evans speech; Manufacturing PMI
EU – German GDP; Manufacturing PMI
EU – Draghi speech
US – FOMC Minutes!!!; Existing home sames; OIL crude inventories
US – Kaplan speech
OIL – OPEC meeting!!!
GBP – GDP
US – GDP; Durable Goods; G7 meeting
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.1350 - 1.1500. Supports: 1.1180, 1.1145.
An downtrend is not expecting for this week.
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1265 and then to 1291 - 1319. Supports: 1246.
An downtrend is ot expecting for this week, but possible sideways trading between resistance 1265 and support 1246.
US CRUDE OIL
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 53.70, but this week OPEC Meeting probably can change this trend and we will need to look at alternative scenario closer to this news day. Supports: 49.70, 49.00.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 49.00 - 48.50, which will be followed by a move down to support level 46.65.
by Anton Kolhanov
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