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  • EUR/USD, Forecast and Analysis

    March 6, Monday. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GOLD, US OIL

    MARKET OUTLOOK:

    Yellen destroy future of % rates expectation
    Dollar started to fall at past week Friday, after Yellen words, that before to continue to increase % rate Fed need to see positive rising of CPI and NFP to Fed target. Her words was against hawkish mood of other Fed members, who tells that % rate will be increased in the march.

    And Trump happy because of this
    Before Yellen words, market already included % rates rising in march in the price, when EU was traded on 1.0500. And then, Yellen words created a fear, that next % rates can not to be increasing so far, as market is expecting… Also this situation is well correlated with Trump desire for dollar falling.

    Dollar falling and will continue to 1.0800 or till March Fed % rate
    Trump didn’t said anything about his new tax policy, that create warnings about its realization at all or in way that Trump planned before. Because of this, market optimism is became low and as you remember after Trump election market is already included in price some part of that optimism… So now, any disappointing with future of tax policy will hurt dollar very much.

    Destruction of Mary le Pen career create optimism for euro
    Same time euro got some part of optimism with increasing of negative ratings of Mary le Pen, that was deprived of deputy immunity.

    Gold will be the most profitable investment
    Because of uncertain future of Fed and Trump policies, unstable politic situation in Euro zone, gold will be leader in rising and from current support 1223/25 will go to test again 1258 and after 1298. So current prices is good levels for long term investment in that metal and running against markets risk.

    Crude oil prices on pressure
    OPEC already on the top of their supply cuts and can’t to increase them before their next meeting. Same time oil rigs in US is continue to rising, when also oil inventories is already on the historical top. So oil do not have any chances and will continue correction as minimum to $52.

    TECHNICAL FORECAST

    EUR/USD

    Uptrend scenario:
    The uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.0585, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.0680 and then 1.0780 - 1.0800.

    Downtrend scenario:
    An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.0580, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.0500.

    eurusd

    GBP/USD

    Uptrend scenarion:
    The uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.2210, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.2350 and 1.2460.

    Downtrend scenario:
    An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.2210, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.2065.

    gbpusd

    GOLD

    Uptrend scenario:
    The uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1229 - 1223, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1258.

    Downtrend scenario:
    An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1223, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1214.

    gold

    US CRUDE OIL

    Uptrend scenario:
    An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 53.40, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 54.05/35.

    Downtrend scenario:
    The downtrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading below resistance level 53.40, which will be followed by reaching support level 52.55 and 52.15..

    us oil

    by Anton Kolhanov

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    (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GOLD)

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