Forex Forecast and Technical Analysis
What to expect on this week? Last week market was in sideways trend and this weel have patterns, after breaks of that market will have good potential for fast trends. But this will happen, if main news on this week will have any changes, positive or negative. Mostly, influence will made news "US Core CPI", but also "Core CPI" for EU and GBP also will be very important, so we need to follow them.
The market is trading along a downtrend with target on 1.1450, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading below resistance level 1.1715. An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.1715, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.1820.
The market is trading along a downtrend, that may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 1.1710, which will be followed by reaching support level 1.1670. An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.1746, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.1860.
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.1910 or 1.2037, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.1670. An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1670, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1565.
Previous week was closed on main support 1.1760, so market still have a chance to rebound up to the resistance level 1.1910 (technically). Contribute to this scenario fundamental factor of very weak US "Non-farm payrolls" news, that was published on friday and felt suprisingly low from previous 156K to -33K, that can be a very strong signal for market correction to technical level 1.1910. By history of this news indicator, we can see, that negative NFP market have once per 7-8 year cycle and after we started to have negative NFP, this crysis period is going over 12-18 month, where last of them was on 2001 and 2008 years. But sometimes its happens when NFP became negative, but if after this one we will have more again - this signal will became very dangerous. But before this apocalyptic scenario we do not have any other economic signals for such possible situation, so looks that negative NFP we had just because US economy is already fully loaded by working places, because unemployment is felt from 4.4% to 4.2%, that is very good sign. The market is trading along a sideways trend between resistance 1.1760 and support 1.1650 - 1.1610. An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.1760, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.1910.
On previous week EU Core CPI dropped to 1.1 from 1.2, that is bad sign for euro perspective, also remembering words of Draghi about QE reducing, that at present time is looks not real: economy slows down... Same time US shown increasing of GDP from 3.0% to 3.1%, that is optimistic for dollar. Fundamental picture is showing good perspective for dollar rising, but in same time eurusd rebounded up from key support level 1.1712 - 1.1760, from that very possible we can have correction wave to strong resistance 1.1910 and possible higher, to key resistance 1.2037. So looks, that before dollar will start his uptrend, he should fall a little, to unload. The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.1910. that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.1744 - 1.1712. An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1744 - 1.1712, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1612.
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