Forex Forecast and Technical Analysis
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.1837 and resistance 1.1859. An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1837 - 1.1821, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1760. An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.1859, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.1893 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the market to reach resistance level 1.1947.
Euro zone economy still recovering: last week we have rising of Manufacturing PMI from 57.1 to 58.2 and Services PMI from 54.7 to 55.6. Same time dollar can’t show the same picture and Services PMI felt from 55.9 to 55.1. Looking on weekly chart, technically market now is going to get main resistance level 1.2237 and fundamental situation also confirm this, so seems that soon triangle on H4 will be broken up… The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.1857 and resistance 1.2028. An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.2028, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.2237. An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1857, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1565.
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.2035, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.1953. An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1923, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1870 and 1.1821.
Last week EU GDP increased from 2.2% to 2.3%, economy continue its recover and while we trading in uptrend above main support level 1.1977, marker is going to reach key resistance level 1.2237. However we have signs of loss of uptrend impulse, as pair dropped below 1.2060 - 1.2040 and in this case market is able to start downtrend with target to support levels 1.1923 and 1.1821 - 1.1760, if will break down main support level 1.1977. We need waiting for Thursday US "Core CPI" news to see further trend scenario.
Market is trading sideways between support 1.1908 and resistance 1.1977 waiting for todays (thursday) EU % rates and after Draghi speech, where the last will be most important. The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1.1977, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.2065, where next strong resistance we have on 1.2230. An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1908, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1760. An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1320fx/1.1365cme, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1170fx/1.1240cme.
During time of US economy recovery dollar was in downtrend (may – aug 17), where EURUSD became to very high price 1.2050. Fact of this was Draghi words about QE stop, but as we now see, here is still no reasons for this, because EU CPI do not have strong uptrend and can’t became closer to 2% target level. So Draghi missed, where same time US became much stronger (GDP increased from 0.7% to 3%). Worsens the situation with euro also that now eurusd course 1.2, that increased from 1.035, that is over 20%. EU goods became more expensive, where US more cheaper, so US now became in more profitable situation. Also technically levels 1.2 – 1.22 is very strong resistance, from that market can have confident correction to 1.14. Same time pound will be more weaken currency against dollar and can fell from current 1.29 to 1.25.
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