Forex Forecast and Technical Analysis
Uptrend scenario: Market is trading in uptrend, that uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.1170, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.1255. Downtrend scenario: An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1170, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1105.
Uptrend scenario: While market is trading above support level 1.1180, we can expect continuation of uptrend with target on resistance level 1.1350. Downtrend scenario: Today after "US FOMC" news we have a chance that market will go to change current uptrend, where is case, if pair will drop down below support 1.1180, will start downtrend with target on support level 1.1030.
Current economic situation: (-) Core CPI YoY felt to 1.9%, below FEDs target level of 2%, because of falling oil prices and this can be the reason for FED pause in % increasing; (-) GDP and PMI strongly falling; (-) Trump policy without changes; (-) Risk of Trump impeachment;
On 1.05 EUR/USD will take off losses of buyers and go back to 1.08/09 Last month oil prices felt from 53 to 49 and lost over 10%, that’s why march “US core cpi” of this Friday will not increase or lost 0.1 point (5% of gasoline spending), that will slows down expectations against FED % increasing. Same time Trump still do not have any solutions how to decrease budget deficit and this weekends meeting with Chinese president Xi Jingping was unsuccessful. Trump still not said anything about tax policy and his battle with congress increasing fears that we will not hear anything for a long time, that’s also decreasing optimism about dollar. Euro zone still have neutral economic situation, so from 1.05 eur/usd will find very strong support, when same time dollar index is almost got main resistance on 101.5, from that will fall on 99.70. Main attention of few next weeks will be chained to elections in French, that’s starts on April 23 and can have prolongation, if will need second tour. Chance of Le Pen win is too low, so she will not have it and after her losing euro will got benefit in rising against dollar over 1-2% and this fact will be last decisive reason when eur/usd will start uptrend to 1.08 – 1.10.
Eurusd will go back to 1.0550, gold to $1200 and oil rebound down from $49 and will retest 47.60 On last Friday Trump hadn’t able to close “Obama care” program and he was “destroyed” by congress. Looking on this, most part of traders decided that after this fall Trump will have the same situation with all his rest laws, as spending on infrastructure and tax policy. Fake downtrend on dollar was supported with gap on eurusd, when big players on “Trump risks” started to decrease some part of their dollar longs. After that we have break up of daily neck line and by cascade this started to opens deals of rest small players
On previous week increasing of US % rates didn’t bring anything new to the market, because he is already expected that and included this rising to the price. On this week we do not have any important news, so market will be trading sideways.
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