Forex Forecast and Technical Analysis
This week dollar will be trading sideways between 1.0520 – 1.0780, because of a lack of important news. Now market is waiting for Trump speech about future of new tax rates for business, that he will have on 28 february. On Wednesday we have “FOMC Meeting Minutes”, that will predict future of Fed % rate, but as Yellen told at previous week a twice in congress that: “Futures of new business tax rates is now most important for Fed and we need to include them in our future policy”.
Perhaps, the market will be very difficult to determine the direction of the trend, if it ever will be. As Trump essentially squeezes the dollar sideways, at the same time strengthen dollar with taxes decreasing, but weakening it with desire to reduce the overall dollar rate and termination of % rates raising. At the same time, with tax cuts, FRS can begin QE to support the US economy, which would reduce the dollar. Euro is very negative because politics risks and will also continue its QE. The euro and the dollar markets are becoming too complicated for analyze and trade, so it is best to look at the alternative pairs/markets, such as: eur/gbp (where gbp power is already higherthen in euro), gold and agriculture markets. If on the next week Yellen will not say anything positive about strengthening of % rate, or her words will be neutral, market will continue to stay sideways awaiting of Trump words about future of US business tax decreasing.
To the end of February I’m expecting weak dollar and next prices: - EUR/USD on 1.1220 (now 1.0750) - GBP/USD on 1.2750 (now 1.2460) - GOLD 1290 (now 1235) What the reason of this prices?
Main scenario: The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 22.70, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 20.80
Main scenario: The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 53.45 and resistance 54.30. An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 54.30, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 55.20 and then to 56.50
Main scenario: The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1251, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1215
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Currency pairs: EURUSD, GBPUSD, GOLD
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