LEARN TO ANALYZE, FORECAST AND TRADE
A Master Class by Anton Kolhanov,
Analyst and Trader
MARKETS UNDER STUDY
- CURRENCY/STOCK: EUR/USD, Gold, S&P 500
- ENERGY: Crude oil, Natural Gas
- GRAINS: Wheat, Corn, Soybean
- SOFTS: Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Cotton
YOU WILL LEARN:
It is the basis for market understanding and forecasting, as well as for making decisions in trading. It is used for determining the fair price, to which the market strives, when it is not balanced.
By determining a fair price, we can predict the market behavior, and therefore we can open a deal in terms of the future trend before it starts, and close a deal at the optimal price.
DETERMINING A FAIR PRICE
For example, EUR/USD is being traded at 1.06, but the shift in the economic indicators of the market assessment shows that the level of 1.24 has become the fair price, which means that the price of 1.06 has already become the imbalance price and soon the market will go up from 1.06 to 1.24, towards the fair price.
Knowing the new fair price of 1.24, we can predict market behavior and are able to open a trade before the trend starts, for which we also need to use the technical analysis.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF MARKET ASSESSMENT
A shift in economic indicators allows determining not only the fair price and the price of the imbalance, but also the very moment of the trend beginning and its end.
We determine the values of economic indicators, at which the market will enter a state of imbalance well in advance, respectively, when the indicator value known to us is published, we understand that the market has reached a critical point of imbalance, which means that a real trend (confirmed) will begin at that point, and the market shift will not be false – the market will exit the sideways trend and move towards a fair price.
This knowledge also allows you to get rid of numerous unnecessary losing trades that are opened in a sideways trend in an attempt to spot the beginning of the trend.
EMOTIONAL INDICATORS OF MARKET ASSESSMENT
A price change does not always occur due to a shift in economic indicators; it often changes due to emotional factors/indicators that destabilize the market, thereby temporarily shifting the price from a fair price to an imbalance price.
Such a temporary shift is an excellent opportunity to open a trade with the aim of bringing it back to the fair price level, when the emotional destabilizing factor ceases.
Knowing these factors, firstly, we know the reason for the sudden price shift, and secondly, we determine the moment of their cessation, and therefore the trend reversal to a fair price, opening a deal in advance.
OTHER FACTORS AFFECTING MARKETS
Crops progress and conditions
National policies of the countries
Central bank's policy
UNDERSTANDING OF THE MARKET FROM THE HISTORICAL POINT OF VIEW
Without the knowledge of the history of the past years, it is impossible to correctly navigate the present. In order to understand the exact consequences, which the shifting economic indicators will result in, the degree to which a particular indicators shift can affect the market and where exactly it will lead, over the past 20 years, I have shown the causal relationships influencing the markets.
Including the reasons for crises, the events preceding them, the methods of predicting the beginning and end of crises by observing the behavior of economic indicators and the ways of predicting all mentioned above in the future.
The crises under study are as follows: dot-com bubble, housing bubble, banking/debt bubble, US – China trade war, US – OPEC crude oil confrontation, COVID.
12 DIFFERENT MARKETS
You will learn how to trade at 12 markets:
EUR/USD, gold, S&P 500, crude oil, natural gas, wheat, corn, soybean, coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton.
If they are absolutely new to you and you have never traded them, rest assured, you will receive all the necessary knowledge to trade them.
Simultaneous trading on several markets provides the following benefits:
- Risk diversification – levelling of the yield curve. While one market is in a sideways trend or making losses, the other one is trending and making a profit;
- Profit multiplication due to a greater number of markets for simultaneous or more frequent trading. For example, by choosing a middle-term trading, you can trade one market once every six weeks, and if you choose six markets, you can trade every week, thereby increasing the earning potential by ~ 6 times;
- Choose the most reliable options for day trading due to the greater number of potential signals from more markets;
- The ability of being permanently in trade instead of wasting time: one of the markets will always give a trading signal;
- The ability to select the most understandable and profitable markets and make your trading simpler, understandable and profitable. Move from riskier and less profitable markets to less risky and more profitable ones.
You will receive an Excel file with a ready-made solution for your fundamental analysis: collected Data for the last 13-20 years for 12 markets with ready-made charts for analyzing prices and economic indicators.
Fundamental analysis shows the correct direction of the price, the moment the trend starts and the price to which the market may come. However, without the technical analysis it is impossible:
– to determine the exact price of entering and exiting a trade;
– to confirm the beginning of the trend;
– to calculate the risks of the trade;
– to add to existing trades as the trend develops;
– to predict price behavior more accurately;
– to create a complete trading plan.
The accuracy of entering and exiting a trade conditions the profit/risk ratio of a given trade, which is also additionally calculated using money management, and significantly affects the profitability and risks of trading.
Thus, for example, a trade with a target of 300 ticks and a stop loss of 100 ticks will have a ratio of 3 to 1 (300/100 = 3), then with the 2% risk you can earn 6% (2 * 3 = 6). And with a stop loss of 30 ticks, the ratio increases up to 10 to 1 (300/30 = 10), respectively, the profit grows from 6% to 20% (10 * 2 = 20).
Knowledge of the technical analysis allows you to enter and exit a trade with high accuracy, and also significantly reduces the number of losing trades opened at false attempts to enter the market. Moreover, it calculates future price shift and, along with the risk management, wraps it all up into an integral trading plan.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TOOLS:
Perhaps you run into a situation when there are so many levels drawn on the chart that you are unsure about strength of each single level, and you can’t tell which one is no longer relevant, and which one should still be taken into account. Which one is going to be broken along the trend, and which one indicates that it’s better to close the deal right there?
When such feeling of uncertainty arises, you tend to close the deal much earlier than you should, while the market continues to move along the trend, but without your deal in it, and you miss out on a great deal of profit.
I differentiate SR levels by significance. There are local/intermediate levels having low strength, and there are strong strategic levels, capable of reversing daily, weekly and monthly trends.
You are going to learn how to tell which level is the market’s anchor, from which it will move to the next target of the same scale. Therefore, you will understand which levels will be set as the market’s next targets, and which levels will be merely a temporary barriers – meaning it’s not worth closing the deal upon reaching these, and instead you should wait until our strategic target is reached and close the deal there, which multiplies resulting profit as the deal was kept open over a greater amount of ticks covered by the trend.
1) Positions of the main levels of support/resistance where the current trend ends and a new one begins;
2) Prices, at which it’s better to close the deal on take profit and open a new deal;
3) Trade from levels of reversal;
4) Confirm trend reversal, avoiding false deals upon over-break of levels;
5) Open safe deals upon breaks of confirmed levels on the very top/bottom of the trends;
6) Know exactly the next target level of the market as soon as the current level gets broken;
7) Predict the market and build your own trading plan relative to determined levels;
8) Lay out charts from greater time frame to a lesser one, from monthly to 1-tick, for intraday or swing trading respectively;
9) Place stop loss behind a significant level along the trend, protecting your profit and keeping potential loss at a minimum;
TREND CHANNELS AND WAVES
If you ask several traders to draw a trend channel, each one will draw it in their own way different from others. But in fact, only one channel break is true and profitable, and the rest are false and lead to losses.
If one relies on intuition when drawing a trend channel, failing to observe certain rules, then most of the time a deal that is opened upon the break of such channel will lead to loss, since the channel is falsely broken. As a result, the loss taken on mere attempts of entering the market upon the break of trend channel will be greater than potential profit from the trend, which follows one of the breaks.
After many years of trading I have come up with universal rules for drawing a proper trend channel, which avoids false breaks. And even if a false break happens, I have other rules for minimizing the loss and re-entering the market with the greatest accuracy.
1) How to correctly draw a trend in order to be safe from false breaks;
2) Trend channel is an indicator of trend end and a signal to close the deal with the maximum possible profit;
3) Signals for deal opening/closing, profit taking and loss limiting;
4) The tool for entering the market with increased accuracy upon the break of a lesser trend;
5) The tool for adding deals along the trend as in swing trading;
6) The tool for detection of trend waves;
7) Determining of non-classic levels of support and resistance where classic ones are absent;
8) Trend channel as support/resistance when trading within the greater trend boundaries;
9) Trend channel as support/resistance when trading outside channel boundaries;
10) The rules of drawing a trend line to avoid its false break with consequent loss;
80% of time the market is trading in a sideways trend, which is the most difficult period for a trader: the market becomes chaotic, sharp, shaky or, contrarily, overly passive, uncontrollable, unpredictable.
In fact, a sideways trend’s nature is not chaotic, it’s the opposite. Every sideways trend forms an exact pattern, and if a trader knows the rules of pattern building, he has ability to trade inside the pattern’s waves as well as upon it gets broken.
There are 13 types of patterns and 13 corresponding inverted variants (26 in total). These patterns are found everywhere and comprise 80% of the charts.
Sideways trend formation starts with forming of initial pattern, which can undergo 2 serial transformations into consequent patterns, depending on market conditions such as: divergences, symmetry and swing of waves, false break, % ratio.
Knowledge on building and transformation of patterns grants a trader a rather wide range of opportunities:
– tripling the deals within a pattern;
– avoiding loss by determining a false break beforehand;
– using false break for opening counter deal;
– predicting the market by two target levels, which appear after a pattern gets broken;
– ability to make profit during sideways trend.
1) How to predict market prices with candlestick patterns;
2) Where exactly buyers and sellers are located;
3) Which level is support and resistance;
4) With break of which level to open and close deal;
5) How to determine power of trend pressure;
6) When trend starting to loose his power;
7) Which trend direction we can expecting for the next day;
8) How to confirm rebounds from SR levels with candlestick patterns;
9) How to predict potential break of trend channel or chart pattern with candlestick pattern;
10) How to trade candles with different time frames charts;
11) Which candle models are most strong and common;
VOLUME PROFILE – TYPE DELTA
Earlier, trading on the in pit exchange, you had the opportunity to follow the behaviour of the other bidders and when everyone shouted “buy” – you bought with them, because the price increase was obvious. When everyone shouted “sell” – you closed the deal to buy and opened the sale. This is how the traders used to make money in pit.
To date, all trade is online and the volume analysis acts as the pit: you monitor the flow of orders by the buyers and sellers and follow their transactions. Those traders who use only technical analysis, without the volume analysis, miss a huge advantage of following the crowd in the trend or large orders of institutional traders.
VOLUME PROFILE - PATTERNS
1. Key levels of support/resistance generated by the struggle of buyers and sellers which is impossible to see without this analysis;
2. Prices traded by institutional traders supporting or reversing trends that you can follow and do the same;
3. The price at which an institutional trader suddenly enters, reversing the trend, where you can either close the current deal or open a trade with him at the very beginning of the new trend;
4. The zones of domination of buyers/sellers supporting the trend or starting its reversal;
5. The prices to move your stop loss in a positive direction in the course of the trend development following the orders of the crowd or major players;
6. The price to open a deal at after a major buyer/seller order is broken, after which a strong trend begins;
7. The price to place the stop loss right after the order of a large buyer/seller, which later becomes a strong support/resistance that protects your stop loss;
and much more.
MONEY MANAGEMENT AND THE PSYCHOLOGY OF TRADING
Trading begins with the trading plan, which includes fundamental and technical analysis with pre-calculated risks of each planned trade in relation to a multilevel model of market scenarios. Not only does this sound difficult, it is also difficult to implement.
In the process of trading itself, a trader needs to comprehensively control the risk of all open trades, be able to accept a loss from closed trades, thereby avoiding psychological factors that produce an adverse effect on the quality of his decisions, eliminating the desire to win back losses and much more.
Gradually adding to the trade as the trend develops
The culmination of a competent money management is trading using the pyramiding method, with a large number of trades added in the course of the trend development, which allows multiplying profits in relation to classical day trading. It can be used both partially in day trading and fully in short-term (swing), middle-term and long-term trading.
The chart above shows the swing trading method using pyramiding, all sell trades were kept open until the market reached 1.0830 – the main support, which made it possible to multiply the profit many times and earn +1,350 ticks.
This is what a day trader’s trading looks like:
A day trader opens and closes a deal during one trading session, within the same trading day, so he cannot add to it and keep deals open as the trend develops. During the same period of time, a day trader could earn +345 ticks, which is 4 times less than with the pyramiding method applied. To switch from day trading to pyramiding, the deep knowledge of money management is required, as well as technical and fundamental analysis, etc.
RISK MANAGEMENT CALCULATORS
To keep a large number of trades open in one or several markets, one needs to be able to perfectly control both the risk of each individual transaction and the total risk of all open transactions simultaneously and be able to maintain the risk initially set. Otherwise, when the trend reverses against the trader, the deposit may show a significant drawdown or the trader may get a margin call (lose the deposit).
For example, a trader opened 5 trades, the risk of each of which was 2% at a stop loss of 30 ticks. If in the future the market reverses against the trader, then when the price shifts by 30 ticks, these 5 open trades will result in a 10% loss (5 * 2 = 10). If the market moves quickly, a trader can lose 100 ticks in a few minutes, which will be -30% of the deposit. Such trading without calculating the total risk is a very common reason for the traders to lose their deposits.
Risk calculators allow you to avoid this problem and find the way out of any tricky situation.
CALCULATION OF THE RISK AT OPENING A TRANSACTION
Calculates the risk of a trade before it is opened. The trade risk dimension is set in terms of the deposit amount, and the calculator calculates the size of the lot, which can be opened, and the stop loss in ticks, at which it can be opened to comply with the specified risk, and also shows the amount of loss in money this trade can lead to.
CALCULATION OF OPEN TRADES RISK RETENTION AND THE TARGETS OF THEIR CLOSING
- Controls the risk for all open trades in one market or all markets at the same time;
- Allows you to save and comply with the initially specified risk of one and all open trades;
- Calculates the risk and the result of partial or mass changes in stop loss/take profit;
- Calculates multilevel trading when closing deals at several take profit / stop loss levels;
- Determines the optimal price for fixing profit/closing trades from among 5 possible scenarios for the developments in the market;
- Shows the result of trading after any trader’s action in% and cash, both in relation to all trades and to the deposit amount.
CALCULATION OF THE OPTIMAL DEPOSIT DRAWDOWN AND THE TIME OF RECOVERING FROM ANY DRAWDOWN LEVEL
It allows determining the critical level of the deposit drawdown, at which the process of recovery after losses will be too long, thereby determining the level of the optimal/working drawdown, from which it will be comfortable to recover and which must not be exceeded. It also determines the period of recovering from any drawdown level.
It is important to know these parameters so that in the event of a deposit drawdown, the trader does not have a desire to recoup by exceeding the risks and could safely continue trading within the optimal risks, knowing the exact timing of recovering from a drawdown and further making money.
MONEY MANAGEMENT OPTIMIZATION
Calculates the average risk of trades being opened in such a way that, while observing the optimal level of the deposit drawdown, you get the most profitable result.
CALCULATION OF DAY TRADING PROBABILITIES
Calculation of multilevel trade in day trading, using several stop loss and take profit levels.
Day trading, in contrast to middle-term trading, is rather bound to technical analysis than to the fundamental one, and is subject to strong price fluctuations due to news releases, therefore, a great factor in opening a trade is a probabilistic event, which has already been calculated in this calculator.
For example, the market has reached the barrier and the trader cannot decide: will the market continue the trend breaking through the resistance or will it reverse and go down? What should the trader do: close the entire deal here, but lose profit if the price goes on above this resistance, or close trade partially, while earning in part if the trend continues? There are similar options for stop loss.
Depending on the size of the profit/risk ratio, you can build different strategies for profit taking and closing a trade. In some cases, you can open an additional trade following the trend, in other cases, get out of the trade at different prices with two stop loss or take profit.
Even at the current price level, the market already has at least 5 options for further development of events. If with the further trend development 2 barriers stand in its way, they cause 10 variants of the development of events (2 * 5 = 10) and, accordingly, the same number of options for closing the trade, and considering the partial profit taking – they offer even more options.
By adding to trades following the trend, 5 or more of them can be opened sequentially, and each time a trader opens a trade, he is faced with 5 options for further events development that should be taken into account. In addition, there are also the options for the general market trend, which are a superstructure over the current transactions. As a result, trading turns into a complex multi-level complex of decision-making.
An extremely common trader’s mistake is to focus on one scenario of developments only. For example, the trader has opened a buy trade, and the market has reversed, but the trader has no option in this case, so he does not close the transaction, and gets into a deposit drawdown. If the market continues to move against the trader, and the trader does not close the buy trade and does not open a sale trade where it should have been done, and continues to open new buy trades, because there is only one scenario for him – to buy.
Developing a competent trading plan allows you to take into account all options and risks, so it doesn’t matter for the trader which side to trade, as he is already ready for all scenarios.
In addition, the trading plan includes:
– a fundamental analysis of the market;
– the layout of economic events for a given week;
– calculation of risk management for the day, week and month;
– and many other aspects.
And this combination is considered including multilevel options for the development of events (technical analysis), both local and global ones.
TYPES OF TRADE
Based on the trading plan, it becomes clear which type of trading suits best for this month, week and day.
You will learn 4 types of trading:
Trading from the moment of opening a trading session to its close, within the same trading day.
– Duration of the trend wave: from several minutes to one day;
– The range of time frames for trading: from a minute (or tick) to monthly (large time frames are needed for market analysis);
– Frequency of control of transactions: every minute, with almost no interruptions of the process;
– The pyramiding method is very limited due to the often narrow trading range.
– Simple money management, but still using all types of calculators, especially day trading probabilities.
– The lowest level of profitability of all types of trading (except the long-term one);
– Any sudden important news can throw a trader out of the market at stop loss and destroy trader’s trading strategy for the whole day;
– Transactions must be controlled with full concentration on the process;
– Irregular working day: if a trade has not reached the target level of closing in profit, the trader often must stay up late in the evening waiting for it to reach this price or manually close the trade. Otherwise, a trend reversal can take away all retained profits.
Swing is the development of a very fast and strong trend wave with adding the maximum number of trades, using the pyramiding method, as the trend develops on.
– Duration of the trend wave: from several days to a couple of weeks, however in the future it can also turn into a middle-term type of trading;
– The range of time frames for trading: the entire range, from a minute (or tick) to a monthly one;
– The frequency of trades control: according to the day trading principle, with almost no interruptions of the process;
– The pyramiding method is applicable.
– The highest possible income from all types of trading in the minimum amount of time;
– Consistency and transparency of trading due to the inseparability of the combination of technical and fundamental analyses;
– The most complicated type of trading;
– Sophisticated multilevel money management;
– The trades must be monitored every minute according to the day trading principle;
– It is difficult to sleep at night with a large number of open trades, however a competent calculation of risks using a trading plan and calculators can help eliminating this problem;
– Causes fatigue, but in the end it is exponentially compensated with the profit earned.
The optimal type of trade, suitable for most traders, since the trades are opened at the most basic levels, which gives a lot of time for making a decision to open/close a trade and calculate its risks. It is possible to combine it with the swing.
– Duration of the trend wave: from a week to several months;
– The range of time frames for trading: from H1/H4 to monthly;
– The frequency of trades control: once an hour or upon opening/closing the trading session;
– It is possible to trade through the use of pending orders;
– The pyramiding method is applicable.
– The optimal level of profitability for the optimal amount of time;
– Enough time to make a decision to open/close a deal;
– Convenient for traders with limited free time;
– Stability, consistency and transparency of trading due to the inseparability of the combination of technical and fundamental analyses;
– Ease of holding trades overnight due to their average number;
– Moderately complex money management;
– Low stress level of trading.
– The profitability is 2 or more times lower than that of swing, often for the same period of time (if the trend wave is less than one month).
Suitable for a trader with a very large deposit, when after a year of holding open trades and closing them, the profit gained allows taking some part of this profit and spending it for life, and reinvesting the remaining part to further progress in the deposit accumulation. Its a passive type of trading, which is essentially a pure investment.
– Duration of the trend wave: from six months to several years;
– The range of time frames for trading: from daily to monthly;
– The frequency of trades control: a couple of times a week or less often if there are no news important for the market.
– It is possible to trade with the use of pending orders;
– The pyramiding method is applicable.
– Convenient for traders who have limited free time or do not want to spend time on trading;
– Stability, consistency and transparency of trading due to the inseparability of the combination of technical and fundamental analyses;
– Simple money management due to a very lengthy decision-making process for opening/closing deals;
– Open trades are protected from a trend reversal by the global market trend, which can be changed only in the event of extremely strong force majeure circumstances (wars, trade wars, COVID) or a complete change in the fundamental picture of the market, which a trader can determine in advance using fundamental analysis.
– You must have a fairly large deposit, otherwise the profit received will not be enough for use and reinvestment for the next year;
– A low level of profitability in % as compared to other types of trade, however it is compensated by a high monetary value;
– No earnings during protracted market corrections;
KEEPING A TRADE DIARY
The being of a trader and the trader’s trading begin with keeping a diary. It is a tool in creating the trader’s trading rules, following which allows staying at the optimal level of drawdown while maximizing the profitability of trading.
It eliminates psychological factors affecting the steady trading and making correct rational decisions, the wish to win back the loss exceeding the level of acceptable risk.
By collecting trade statistics and trader’s actions, it helps to:
– Optimize money management;
– Reach the maximum profit/risk ratio;
– Eliminate psychological and technical factors producing an adverse effect on trading;
– Optimize time management, leaving only the actions for which a minimum of time is spent while the maximum profit is reached;
– Optimize all the processes of trading;
– Choose the optimal type of trade for your psychological type;
– Structure the logic and sequence of all actions;
– Improve analytical and trading skills;
– Find new trading approaches and implement them correctly without creating additional risks;
OBSERVING DISCIPLINE BY A TRADER
It promotes daily operational compliance with the trading rules established through keeping a trader’s diary, maintaining discipline, quick identification and elimination of the causes of losses and negative psychological factors.
DETERMINING GOALS IN TRADING
Often a trader is faced with the problem of inability to overcome the feeling of discontent with the trade due to the insufficient success, as he believes, which causes a feeling of increasing irritability, due to which the trader starts opening unreasonable emotional trades, leading to losses.
The problem is that such a trader have no correctly set goals, therefore he or cannot assess its success and quality, which in fact can already be at a sufficiently high level, allowing the trader to fulfill almost any material needs in the near future, including the purchase of real estate. However, the trader cannot understand that, therefore cannot calm down and continue trading with a cool head.
The trader does not understand what exactly he is trading for:
– at what deposit level it is better to start trading for him;
– whether he will lose money after opening a deposit;
– how much money he needs to earn;
– for what purpose;
– in what specific terms;
– how realistic it is to achieve this level of earnings and whether his goal is not a utopia.
To carry out the money management with all the options described above, you will receive a ready-made solution in the form of an Excel file with a desktop having everything ready to start working.
1. Studying the lessons and practical tasks
You will consistently receive lessons in PDF format from me, study them, complete a practical task, I will check it, point out mistakes, and you will redo the practical task until the lesson is learnt perfectly, after which we move on to the next lesson. The training course consists of 8 lessons, studying each takes an average of 1 week.
2. Learning the process of creating a trading plan on a real time basis
Upon studying the lessons, we’ll move on to practice in real time: learning the creation of a trading plan and developing analytical skills. You will have one week of my personal mentoring with you one on one in live chat, during which you will send me your trading plan for a week and a day.
I will check it, point out mistakes and you will redo it until the work is done perfectly. We will also discuss the market in real time. This process should lead you to an absolute independence in analysis, forecasting and trading in the markets. If necessary, this stage of training can be extended in the form of one on one communication (mentorship) or in a group.
The training will be online: via email and chat (messengers).
2 months for studying lessons on average + 1 week of practical training sessions in making a trading plan (mentorship). However the ending date depends on your availability and can vary. You spend as much time on training as is convenient for you. For example you can learn one stage per month or two – as you wish.
There is no schedule.
You will pass all stages of training with me, Anton Kolhanov, in person.
PAY IN STAGES
1. Fundamental Analysis
2. Support / Resistance Levels
3. Trend Channels
4. Chart Patterns
5. Candlestick Patterns
6. Joint Lesson
7. Volume Analysis
8. Money Management And Psychology
9. Mentorship, 1 week